EIA updates 2023, 2024 bioenergy forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook on March 7, predicting that renewables will account for 24 percent of U.S. electricity generation this year, expanding to 26 percent in 2024. Renewables accounted for 22 percent of electricity generation in 2022.

Biomass energy sources were used to generate 26.7 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity last year. Biomass generation is expected to fall to 25.5 billion kWh in 2023 before partially rebounding to 26 billion kWh in 2024.

The electric power sector is expected to consume 0.213 quadrillion Btu (quad) of waste biomass this year, flat with 2022. Consumption is expected to fall slightly to 0.212 quad next year. The sector is also expected to consume 0.179 quad of wood biomass this year, increasing to 0.186 quad next year. Consumption of wood biomass was at 0.2 quad in 2022.

The industrial sector consumed 0.16 quad of waste biomass last year. That level of consumption is currently expected to be maintained through 2023 and 2024. The sector also consumed 0.285 quad of wood biomass last year, with consumption expected to increase to 1.341 quad in 2023 and 1.362 quad in 2024.

The commercial sector consumed 0.037 quad of waste biomass and 0.083 quad of wood biomass last year. Those levels of consumption are currently expected to be maintained through this year and next year.

The residential sector is expected to consume 0.482 quad of wood biomass in both 2023 and 2024, flat with 2022.

Across all sectors, waste biomass consumption was at 0.412 quad in 2022 and is expected to fall to 0.41 quad this year and 0.409 quad in 2024. Wood biomass consumption was at 0.05 quad in 2022 and is expected to expand to 2.085 quad in 2023 and 2.113 quad in 2024.

The electric power sector had 3.5 gigawatts (GW) of waste biomass capacity and 2.4 GW of wood biomass capacity in place as of the end of 2022. Waste biomass capacity is expected to expand to 3.6 GW by the end of 2023 and be maintained at that level through the end of 2024. Wood biomass capacity is currently expected to be maintained at 2.4 GW through the end of this year and next year.

The industrial and commercial sectors had 5.5 GW of wood biomass capacity in place as of the end of 2022. Capacity is expected to expand to 5.6 GW this year and be maintained at that level through 2024. Waste biomass capacity was at 0.8 GW at the end of 2022 and is expected to remain at that level through the end of next year.