USDA maintains forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Aug. 11. The forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production was revised up.

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023-‘24 include higher beginning stocks and lower production and exports. Beginning stocks are raised on higher 2022-‘23 imports. Soybean production for 2023-‘24 is forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, down 95 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels per acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month.

Soybean supplies for 2023-‘24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last year. With soybean exports down 25 million bushels on lower supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month.

The USDA currently predicts 12.5 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production in 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the July WASDE. The agency now estimates 11.7 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2022-’23, up from the July estimate of 11.6 billion pounds. Approximately 10.348 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production in 2021-’22.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-‘24 is forecast at $12.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $380 per short ton, up $5. The soybean oil price forecast is 62 cents per pound, up 2 cents.

Global soybean exports are reduced 500,000 tons to 168.8 million on lower U.S. exports. Soybean crush and imports are reduced for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan, in line with downward revisions in the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.6 million tons to 119.4 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks.