How powerful will wind turbines be in 2030?

Respondents believe the (mean) average size of onshore wind turbines being installed by 2030 will be 8.2MW, according to the survey of more than 500 industry stakeholders.

Meanwhile, respondents believe offshore wind turbines installed in 2030 will likely average around 18.8MW in capacity, with some suggesting the average machine will be even more powerful than that. 

More than a third (36%) of respondents said average new offshore wind turbines installed from 2030 would have power ratings of 19-22MW, while a smaller proportion (5.3%) believe turbines would reach 22-25MW. 

Meanwhile, 42% of respondents said average new onshore turbines installed from 2030 would have power ratings of 9-11MW, while 15% believe onshore models could reach 11-12%.

Survey results (pic credit: Hamburg Messe und Congress)

Turbine sizes have increased in recent years as manufacturers look to improve the energy efficiency of their developments and reduce the number of turbines needed to reach a wind farm’s desired output. However, some – including the chief technology officer at turbine giant Vestas – have suggested manufacturers should slow the pace of unveiling ever-larger machines to ease pressures on the supply chain.

Wind Energy Hamburg stated: “Respondents expressed expectations of a more or less significant increase of turbine output power, notwithstanding the general opinion voiced by industry experts that growth is finite. This is attributable to hopes that turbine manufacturers will finally enter the profitable zone, which is a necessity in the long term.”

Since US manufacturing giant GE broke the 10MW barrier in 2018 with its Haliade-X turbine – which has a power rating of up to 14MW – rival firms have announced even more powerful machines, with China’s CSSC and MingYang working on 18MW models, and GE planning an 18MW upgrade of its own.

Meanwhile, Goldwind earlier this year announced plans for a 12MW onshore wind turbine – a power rating surpassing that of machines installed at offshore wind farms today.