USDA reduces 2022-’23 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel

The USDA reduced its forecast for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 9. The agency’s estimate for 2021-22 soybean oil use in biofuel was also revised down.

According to the USDA, soybean supply and use projections for 2022-’23 are unchanged from last month. Based on a review of EPA’s recent proposed rule for renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022-’23 is reduced 200 million pounds to 11.6 billion pounds. The USDA also revised its estimate for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel to 10.348 billion pounds, compared to 10.35 billion pounds estimated as of last month. Approximately 8.92 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2020-’21.

Soybean oil exports are also reduced on historically low export sales through November. With reduced use of soybean oil for biofuel and exports, food use and ending stocks are raised. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $14 per bushel. The soybean oil price is reduced 1 cent per pound to 68 cents. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $10 to $410 per short ton.

The global soybean outlook includes higher production, exports and ending stocks. Production is raised on higher output for India and Ukraine. Export are raised slightly as higher shipments for Argentina are partly offset by lower exports for Canada and Paraguay. With global crush relatively unchanged, ending stocks are raised 500,000 tons to 102.7 million.