USDA maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released April 8. The expected price for soybean oil was revised up.   

The USDA increased its forecast for soybean exports by 25 million bushels, to 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine and Russia. Seed use in raised in line with record soybean plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report.

Soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. Soybean oil changes include increased exports and lower ending stocks. A lower soybean meal export forecast is offset by slightly higher domestic disappearance.

Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, the USDA said export sales have been stronger than expected through March. The USDA has maintained its forecast that 10.7 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2021-‘22 , up from 8.85 billion pounds in 2020-’21 and 8.658 billion pounds in 2019-’20.

The season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $13.25 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $420 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 70 cents per pound, up 2 cents.

The 2021/22 global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, trade, and ending stocks. Global soybean production is reduced 3.1 million tons to 350.7 million on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay. Soybean crush is lowered for Paraguay on lower supplies and reduced for China on the current pace to date. China’s soybean imports are also lowered 3 million tons to 91 million. Lower soybean exports for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by higher U.S. shipments. Global soybean stocks are lowered 400,000 tons to 89.6 million mainly on lower U.S. and Argentine stocks.